How
much do you
think you know about Climate Change?
How much do you know about
anthropogenic climate change before you call it a planetary crisis? Are you sure
you've delved into climatic events of the Earth and you've gained some
balanced knowledge and data about them, before you say yes or no to the
climatic scenarios of this planet. Is it fair you
simply agree with your best friends and your heroes on the global
warming or global
cooling just because their opinions are cherishable to you. Keep your
eyes wide open, and cool your heads, and try to get some balance before
you decide your position as to the climate change.
Is it a
climate
crisis? Referring
to anthropogenic climate change,some world leaders assert man should
find a cutting-edge resolution within a decade and
they stress it's now or never.
Does it sound like a distant cry to you? It is up to you all to decide
whether or not man is entering the 11th hour regarding the
climatic events. Maybe it is a little too early to press a panic
button, but it is true that man is entering a devastating phase of the
climatic cycles. Giving out terrifying messages and clamoring
against the imminent disaster reproachfully is going to be our fist
line of defense against the oncoming climatic threats? Everyone should
agree that now is the time to prioritize the possible effective
measures to "tame" the climatic events.
Frugality
is the remedy? As regards
anthropogenic global warming, however, we have a litany of
resolutions in our hands already. Topping the litany can be
"Return to nature". You can say man should control their avarice to
start a more
frugal living, saving energy and leading an environment-friendly way of
living. In other words, a holistic solution for the
climatic events should be sought for. If an aggregation of varied
solutions points to much too artificial intentions or is weighted with
special
interests, this soup for the climatic scenario will
be
spoiled.
Is it a conundrum? Aren't
we driving these climatic events into a conundrum of
this century or tie them up into a nonsensical Gordian knot. However,
it is crystal-clear that man has just started a hard bargain with
Mother
Nature. Save energy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions into atmosphere
is the best strategy to counter climate change. We must be tactful to
prioritize all the remedial options and synergize them and, more
importantly, must
remember that climatic variations will continue in billions of years to
come. And is there any red herring in this conundrum?
Bottom up or top
down? Do
we need to start this campaign against climate change top down or
bottom
up? Illustrious politicians started brainstorming to get the best
remedies. What do you think is the best remedy for climate
change. There is no
bite-sized solution, but a great deal of options lie in store
for us. We should think about them. Not to change the
subject,is it much too far-fetched to
support a news article saying
Americans' obesity is one contributor to anthropogenic global warming?
How to evaluate
Climate Change
There are a number of things to consider to evaluate the possible risks
and properties of climate variations.
About five to 9 millenniums ago, this planet was
much
warmer
than now. The Holocene Climate Optimum was a warm period
ranging
from 9,000 to 5,000 years B.P. [B.P. stands for
Before
Present, having 1950 as the base year in radiocarbon dating]
The Holocene
Climate Optimum warm event consisted of increases of up
to 4 °C near the North Pole (in one study, winter warming of
3-9°C and summer of 2-6°C in northern central
Siberia).
Northwestern Europe experienced warming, while there was cooling in the
south. The average temperature change appears to have declined
rapidly with latitude so that essentially no change in mean temperature
is reported at low and mid latitudes. Tropical reefs tend to show
temperature increases of less than 1 °C. In terms of the global
average, the typical shift was probably between 0.5 and 2 °C
warmer
than the mid-20th century (depending on estimates of latitude
dependence and seasonality in response patterns). Sources:
Wikipedia
Early Holocene Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations
Further
studies on carbon cycle may determine the optimum period of looking
into
climatic events. Ironically, if the Holocene Climate Optimum were set
as the base climate model, then we could assume man has been
in the global cooling cycle for the past millennium and is getting back
to
normal .
Global
average air temperature near Earth's surface rose 0.74 ±
0.18 °Celsius (1.3 ± 0.32 °Fahrenheit) in
the last
century. Models referenced by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change(IPCC) predict that global
temperatures are likely to increase by 1.4°C
(2.5°F)
to 5.8
°C (10.4°F)
between 1990
and 2100. sources:
IPCC Although
most studies focus on the period up to 2100, warming and sea
level rise are expected to continue for more than a millennium even if
no further greenhouse gases are released after this date. This reflects
the long average atmospheric lifetime of carbon dioxide (CO2).Sources: Wikipedia
To measure a road distance, a 12-inch rule is not a
proper
means to do the job. What about a 60-feet tape measure?
Still, it won't help, either. Likewise, to
search for paleoclimate records and reconstruct them, a
methodology is a very important part. For reconstruction of
paleoclimatic records for a past
millennium or two, reading tree
rings are something like using a 12-inch rule to measure a few hundred
miles of distance on the roads. To better understand the Earth's
paleoclimatic
variations since the Big Bang, which would be the optimum timescale in
measuring and reconstructing climate records: 10 years, 100 years, 1000
years or 5000
years? I'd be rather inclined to refer to a concept of meta-seasons or metaseasons,
instead of four regular seasons that come in a yearly cycle. This
planet may have some metaseasons that may be recurring in
terms
of timescale.
There was the
hot topic of the spurious Hockey
Stick controversy at US Congress that was centered on the
reconstructed estimates of Northern Hemisphere temperature change over
the past millennium. The Hockey Stick is the coined name for
a reconstructed paleoclimate record by Mann and co-authors to
describe the climatic variations over the past 1000 years. The Hockey Stick
has ignited criticism , based on the
following: a)
Medieval Warm Period ( between 10th and 14th centuries)
and
Little Ice Age( between 1600 and 1700
AD) were muffled on the Hockey Stick graph b) IPCC
gave prominence to the Hockey Stick in its 2001
report (IPCC TAR).
This climatic event could probably be ascribable to such
other factors as
predictable changes
in the Earth's orbit (Milankovitch cycles).
Evidently, CO2 gas is not the biggest driver for warming the Earth's
surface and atmosphere. Theoretically, factors other than the
Milankovitch cycles might include
a) A surge in population on the Earth b)
Catastrophic and cataclysmic changes affecting
biodiversity and terrestrial carbon storage c) A
possible mysterious carbon cycle interruption d)
Other causes yet to be scientifically identified If any
gas of the atmosphere were removed, the following
percentage reduction in Greenhouse Effect(GE) would occur as
per
table below.
Gas Removed
Percentage Reduction in
GE
Water Vapor
36%
CO2
12%
O3
3%
Source:
Ramanathan
and Coakley,
Rev. Geophys and Space Phys., 16 465 (1978)
Meantime,
IPCC reports have been focused on atmospheric CO2
concentrations, which
are part of the Earth's carbon cycle. Major
measurements like
ice-core records
and stomatal
index records
have not been consistent all the time during 11,000 years, for
instance. And ironically enough,
during the Holocene Climate Optimum, temperature in the North Pole
showed increases of up to 4ºC , while at the
Holocene minimum, atmospheric CO2 concentrations showed a record low of
260ppm according to the Taylor Dome ice-core. On
the other
hand, the recent
stomatal index records showed the atmospheric CO2 concentrations during
the early Holocene went up to 350ppm. It
compares with 383 ppm of CO2 gas in the air for now.
There are people at the forefront of climatic
afflictions. About 155,000 Inuits, also known as Eskimos, have been
losing their habitat, due to climate
change, for more than a decade. Shifting winds and thinning
ice have jeopardized their hunting patterns.
"Our way of life is at stake," says Sheila
Watt-Cloutier, had been nominated with former U.S. Vice
President Al Gore for a 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for their work on
climate change. Al Gore and IPCC won the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize jointly.
While for many global warming is a distant threat, for the Inuit its
impact is a reality now. "It's about real people who live on top of the
world," she said.
A
recent report called Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change,
produced by the Hadley Centre, one of the top world centres for
projecting future
climate, modelled the likely effects of 3º C rise.
It warned the
situation could wreck half the world's wildlife reserves,
destroy major forest systems, and put 400 million more people at risk
of hunger.
The fast population growth may cause a surge in CO2 gas
emissions at an exponential rate, which may be called
Population Time Bomb.
When first baby boomers were born , the world's population stood
at 2 billion and reached 3 billion in
1960. As of February, 2007, it stood at 6.5 billion
and will
soar to 7 billion in 2012 and 9 billion around 2050, according to UN
figures released. The world
population increased by 1 billion to reach 6 billion between
1987 and 1999.
According to a February 2007 report from U.N. Food Program, today 850
million people are hungry and malnourished. Over half of them are
children. 18,000 children die every single day because of hunger
and malnutrition.
What is causing
Climate Change
The greenhouse effect is the process warming the Earth's surface and
atmosphere by
radiating infrared out of the absorbed sunlight. Water vapor is
responsible for 36% of greenhouse effect, while CO2 gas for 12% and O3
for 3%.Water vapor is a product of natural
phenomenon, but CO2 gas and other greenhouse gases are emitted by human
activities.CO2
concentrations in the atmosphere has increased from about 313 ppm
(parts per million) in 1960 to about 375 ppm in 2000, according to
the Mauna Loa observatory. According to IPCC's 2001 report,
there had been a minimal increase of 20ppm in CO2 concentration in the
atmosphere during the past 11,000 years until the pre-industrial period.
Some
say vehicles account for 63 percent
of CO2 gas emissions as opposed to the more conservative figures of
20- 30% claimed by others. Unfortunately,
there are not reliable data available now. As of end-2005, the global
total of
vehicles stood at approx. 600 million, while the number of
vehicles in
the United States was over 230 million
in the same year. Considering an annual vehicle production set at 50
million worldwide. and the growing
median vehicle age(that of passenger cars in 2006 rose to 9.2
years), it is estimated the
global vehicle total will reach over 1 billion before 2015.
U.S.A. is responsible for one quarter of the world’s
greenhouse
gas emissions, consuming 20% of the global fossil fuel. China and India
rank second and third largest producers of CO2 gas emissions. To curb
greenhouse gas emissions worldwide, Kyoto
Protocol
signed in February 2005 is participated by over 160
countries,
but the United States has not ratified this treaty, while China and
India are not obligated under this treaty to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions in view of their developing country status.
U.N. data for 2003 put the U.S. top with 23 percent of world carbon
dioxide emissions
and China second on 16.5 percent. But U.S. individuals were far bigger
emitters, at 20 tons per capita against China's 3.2 tons and a
world average of 3.7.
CO2 gas emissions from factories will be soaring in the emerging
economies, like China and India, while carbon trading under the Kyoto
Protocol will be prevalent in North America and EU. On the
other
hand, CO2 gas emissions from vehicles will rapidly surge in North
America. Annually, USA alone witnesses an increase of 6 to 7 million
vehicles, due to geographical conditions, socioeconomic trends
shadowing HOV(High Occupancy Vehicles) initiatives, and inefficient
mass transit
systems.
According to a 2000 estimate by Texas Transportation
Institute, 75 U.S. metropolitan areas experienced 3.6
billion vehicle-hours of delay, resulting in 5.7 billion US gallons
(21.6
billion liters) in wasted fuel and $67.5 billion in lost productivity.
It is assumed that to reduce CO2 gas emissions from vehicle,
beating traffic congestion is a foregone conclusion. Top
priority in alleviating traffic congestion should go to eliminating
tollgate
congestions,
among others. And why?
Why tollgate? To
collect tolls, metropolitan traffic should be
stopped at every
tollgate, and normally , the stop-and-go traffic will stretch over
5 to 15 miles before any tollgate during rush hours, and the
incomplete combustion triggered by this delay will cause vehicles to
spit out more CO2 gas into atmosphere. According to Environmental
Defense, U.S.A.is accountable for 45 % of the world's vehicle CO2
emissions
There is no confirmed data yet, but the percentage of CO2 gas
emissions caused by tollgate congestions may perhaps account for
over 40% of the total vehicle CO2 emissions.
And the following items are how to address the tollgate
congestion:
get
rid of tollbooths completely (no carpool booth, no cash booth, no RFID
transponder booth)
let
vehicles pass cashless through tollgates at any speed , normally 75 to
80 mph
let
motorists pay tolls wirelessly, but not by means of RFID
transponders
Hopefully we will
come to realize we are the environment Currently
polarizing views on climate change will
hopefully narrow down to a consensus: "We are the environment". At
the same time, we all know whistle-blowing is one thing, and
pressing a panic button
is another. The climate issue won't hopefully evolve into political
agenda leaning towards partisan interests. We do not look forward
eagerly to pompous grandstand plays by either side
of
pros and cons revolving around the climatic scenarios for the
relatively short span of 1990 and 2100. We have billions
of
years gone by and centillions of millenniums yet to come.
Possible remedies
for Climate Change There
are five strategic baselines of
debating Climate Change Remedies.
economize on energy ( inclusive of population control)
Our Slogan on
Anthropogenic Climate Change We are the environment ! Traffic
congestion is more devastating than all the world wars combined
together. Traffic
congestion is forever and growing worse. All the wars are
transient. Traffic
congestion and anthropogenic climate change are both sides of
the same coin..